Clinton
has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation Poll says:
With
hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of
defeating Republican Donald Trump in
the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of
the Nation project.
Her
chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on
Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and
Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on
Monday.
The former secretary of state was
leading Trump by about 45 percent to 42 percent in the popular vote, and was on
track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the
270 needed for victory, the survey found.
Trump's
chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and
Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and
Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points. For
Trump to win, he will have to take most of those states.
Any combination of two losses in
the three states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost assuredly
result in a Clinton victory. At the same time, Trump must hold onto the
traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and
hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican
bastion, Utah.
To win, Trump needs higher
turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialized in 2012, a
drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted
increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.
North
Carolina, one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, might
provide clues to the outcome. If Clinton wins the state, it probably means African Americans
are turning out to vote at a similar rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama
beat Republican Mitt Romney by four points nationally. Romney won North
Carolina by two points.
The States of the Nation poll
found that early votes have been cast evenly between
Trump and Clinton in North Carolina. Trump enjoyed a slim one-point advantage
among all likely voters, 47 percent to Clinton’s 46. He had a 30 percentage
point lead among white voters, while Clinton led by about 85 points among black voters.
Florida, with its 29 Electoral College votes, is crucial
to Trump. If Clinton wins Florida, she just needs to win one of the three big
swing states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump would have to win
all three. If he wins Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and Michigan
or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
According to the project, Clinton
enjoys the tiniest of leads in Florida, 48 percent to 47. Clinton leads Trump
by 75 points among black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics. But Trump enjoys a 30
point lead among likely white voters. Clinton’s success in Florida depends on
heavy turnout among black voters. Without it, the race becomes razor-thin, even
with a large increase in Hispanic ballots.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday,
according to the project. Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania.
Still, a surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout among
black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
If
Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern swing states
have been decided, eyes will turn to Arizona. Trump led Clinton by five points
on Sunday, but Arizona had moved steadily
toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project. It is also a state
where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in Clinton’s favour.
If Trump is in a position to win
after Arizona, he could still be tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to
the end.
Opinion polls have Trump up by
five points or more in Utah. A McMullin upset could set up a low-probability
scenario where neither Clinton nor Trump reaches
the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. The election would then be decided by the
Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have
a three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native and former
CIA operative.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people
every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.
Courtesy: Michael Williams and Howard Goller of Reuters
