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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation Poll says

Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation Poll says:

With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.

The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 percent to 42 percent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory, the survey found.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points. For Trump to win, he will have to take most of those states.

Any combination of two losses in the three states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost assuredly result in a Clinton victory. At the same time, Trump must hold onto the traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican bastion, Utah.
To win, Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialized in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.

North Carolina, one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, might provide clues to the outcome. If Clinton wins the state, it probably means African Americans are turning out to vote at a similar rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by four points nationally. Romney won North Carolina by two points.
The States of the Nation poll found that early votes have been cast evenly between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina. Trump enjoyed a slim one-point advantage among all likely voters, 47 percent to Clinton’s 46. He had a 30 percentage point lead among white voters, while Clinton led by about 85 points among black voters.
Florida, with its 29 Electoral College votes, is crucial to Trump. If Clinton wins Florida, she just needs to win one of the three big swing states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump would have to win all three. If he wins Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and Michigan or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
According to the project, Clinton enjoys the tiniest of leads in Florida, 48 percent to 47. Clinton leads Trump by 75 points among black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics. But Trump enjoys a 30 point lead among likely white voters. Clinton’s success in Florida depends on heavy turnout among black voters. Without it, the race becomes razor-thin, even with a large increase in Hispanic ballots.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday, according to the project. Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania. Still, a surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout among black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
If Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern swing states have been decided, eyes will turn to Arizona. Trump led Clinton by five points on Sunday, but Arizona had moved steadily toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project. It is also a state where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in Clinton’s favour.
If Trump is in a position to win after Arizona, he could still be tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to the end.
Opinion polls have Trump up by five points or more in Utah. A McMullin upset could set up a low-probability scenario where neither Clinton nor Trump reaches the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. The election would then be decided by the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have a three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native and former CIA operative.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.

Courtesy: Michael Williams and Howard Goller of Reuters

Hillary Clinton wins Dixville Notch midnight vote

Hillary Clinton wins Dixville Notch midnight vote

Hillary Clinton 4, Donald Trump 2, Gary Johnson 1 -- and a single write-in surprise: Mitt Romney.

With eight residents voting and five times as many reporters watching, Dixville Notch has spoken.

On a frigid night in the largely forgotten region about halfway between the Maine and Canadian borders, the small northern New Hampshire town came alive for several minutes of kitschy democratic conflict. This latest round of wee hours voting extends a tradition that traces back more than a half-century.

With the results in from Dixville Notch this long-awaited Election Day is officially underway, and sure as the Earth turns on its axis, the end of the 2016 presidential contest seems impossibly closer.

The Granite State's tight Senate race will enter Election Day deadlocked, with Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan and incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte each Dixville notching 4 votes.
Tuesday night's result will hearten superstitious Clinton supporters. The town's small collection of dedicated voters have correctly picked the eventual winner in three of the last four contests. In 2000 and 2004 it broke for George W. Bush and in 2008 it delivered a victory for Barack Obama.


Courtesy: CNN Politics 

Monday, November 7, 2016

133 reasons (and counting!) Hillary Clinton should be our next president

133 reasons (and counting!) Hillary Clinton should be our next president

We could keep going.
1.      As a former secretary of state, U.S. senator, first lady, and a lifelong advocate for women and families, no one is more qualified to be president than Hillary.
2.     Hillary knows child care, equal pay, and paid leave are fundamental economic issues—not just “women’s issues.”
3.     We can’t afford a temperamentally unfit, manifestly unqualified candidate in the White House.
4.     Our democracy should work for everyone—not just the wealthy and well-connected.
5.     Our next president could make multiple appointments to the Supreme Court.
6.     We need comprehensive background checks on gun purchases.
7.     She’ll fight to overturn Citizens United to curb the outsized influence of big money in politics.
8.    Because the wealthiest should pay their fair share in taxes.
9.     We need comprehensive immigration reform that includes a path to full and equal citizenship.
10.She will tackle the threat of climate change head-on by making America the world’s clean energy superpower—because, unlike her opponent, she doesn’t believe it’s a Chinese hoax.  
11.  She’s set a big goal: more than half a billion solar panels installed across the country by the end of her first term.
12. She’s set another big goal: to generate enough renewable energy to power every home in America within 10 years of her taking office.
13. When they go low, she goes high. 
14. The economy is stronger when a Democrat is in the White House.
15.                       Hillary will defend Planned Parenthood and women’s health care from Republican attacks.
16. Because debt-free college should be available to all Americans—and current borrowers should be able to refinance their loans and save money.
17. She will build an economy that works for everybody—not just the top 1 percent.
18.Guaranteed paid family leave.
19. She declared on the world stage that “gay rights are human rights.”
20.                       Because we need a president who has a plan to hold Wall Street accountable.
21. As first lady, she helped get health care coverage for 8 million American children.
22.                        After decades of fighting for progressive issues (and 11 straight hours of testimony in front of a Republican-led congressional committee), she’s proved nobody can stand up to Republicans better than she can. 
23.                        Our veterans should have access to timely and high quality health care.
24.                        She’s the only candidate with the NRA running ads against her.
25.                        Hillary believes that raising middle-class incomes is the defining economic challenge of our time—and she has a plan to do just that.
26.                        Suspected terrorists, domestic abusers, other violent criminals, and the severely mentally ill shouldn’t be able to purchase a gun.
27.Because every 4-year-old in America should be able to go to a high-quality preschool in the next 10 years.
28.                       We need to invest in infrastructure and rebuild or expand our roads, bridges, rail, broadband, public transit, and water and energy infrastructure.
29.                        We need to protect Americans’ right to vote—not billionaires’ and corporations’ right to buy elections.
30.                     Have you seen the things Trump says at his rallies?
31. Have you seen Trump in a debate?
32.                        Hillary will work to keep families together and defend President Obama’s executive actions that protect DREAMers.
33.                        She has spent her life fighting for a fairer America.
34.                        She’s been fighting for women and children her entire career—ever since she started working at the Children’s Defense Fund after law school.
35.                        She believes we need a new and comprehensive commitment to equity and opportunity for communities of color.
36.                        She’ll empower veterans—and strengthen our economy and communities—by connecting their unique skills to the jobs of the future.
37.Prescription drug costs are still too high—and Hillary has a plan to lower them.
38.                       As senator, she championed the Paycheck Fairness Act and co-sponsored the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act to help close the wage gap so women earn equal pay.
39.                        It’s time to close the Charleston loophole that lets otherwise prohibited individuals buy a gun if their background check is not complete in three days.
40.                       Because we should do all the good we can for all the people we can for as long as we can.
41. Community college should be tuition-free for every American.
42.                        Hillary negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that ended the rain of rockets on Israel.
43.                        Smart power is a smart strategy.
44.                        We need a president who will crack down on companies that send profits overseas to avoid paying their fair share in U.S. taxes.
45.                        She’ll defend Social Security and Medicare against Republican attacks.
46.                        We need a president with a plan to protect the transgender community from violence.
47.                      If Congress continues its refusal to act on comprehensive immigration reform, Hillary has a plan to act—and do everything possible under the law to protect families.
48.                       She knows how to find common ground to get the job done—but also how to stand her ground.
49.                        Hillary is the only candidate who’s ready to be Commander-in-Chief (and who doesn’t call the U.S. military a “disaster.”)
50.                       She has a plan to reform mandatory minimum sentencing.
51. We need a small-business president.
52.                        Because every American citizen should be automatically registered to vote when they turn 18, unless they opt out. Hillary will get it done.
53.                        She’s a progressive—and she’s a progressive who gets things done.
54.                        Immigration enforcement must be humane and targeted—and she’ll end family detention and close private detention centers.
55.                        Hillary has a plan to reduce the risk of future financial crises.
56.                        Because we should hold corporations and individuals on Wall Street accountable—and prosecute them when they break the law.
57.                       She’s one tough mother.
58.                       She fought for health care for 9/11 first responders as a U.S. senator—and she’s been a vocal advocate for a permanent renewal of the Zadroga Act.
59.                        It’s time to end for-profit private prisons in America.
60.                       The Affordable Care Act is working—but we are going to strengthen it by giving a new tax cut to cover out-of-pocket expenses and taking on prescription drug costs
61. Hillary will defend and fight to restore collective bargaining rights for workers.
62.                        She knows historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) serve an important public mission and will make a significant commitment to them.
63.                        We need to end the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine.
64.                        Because it’s time to end conversion “therapy” for LGBT minors.
65.                        Hillary will put a stop to Republicans’ systematic efforts to stop millions of people from voting.
66.                        We need a president who will fight to restore the protections of the Voting Rights Act after they were gutted by the Supreme Court.
67.Hillary helped negotiate the toughest sanctions Iran has ever faced.
68.                       She’s earned the wrath of the gun lobby, Iran, pharmaceutical companies, and special interests—and that should tell you something about who she’s fighting for.
69.                        She has a plan to invest in American manufacturing and revitalize communities that have lost manufacturing jobs.
70.                      She knows what’s going on in Laos.
71. She believes we should let families buy into the Affordable Care Act health care exchanges regardless of immigration status.
72.Prison is not a substitute for treatment for drug addiction and mental health issues—Hillary knows that and will do something about it.
73.We can create a new national standard of no fewer than 20 days of early in-person voting in every state.
74.Because those at the top are doing just fine. It’s your family who needs a fighter in the White House.
75.Hillary has a plan to combat America’s quiet epidemic of substance abuse—including prevention, treatment, and supporting our first responders.
76.In the words of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: “I’ve never met anyone more prepared to be president.”
77. She has a plan to make our financial system fairer and more accountable.
78.                        High-quality K–12 education needs to be a priority for every child in America.
79.As secretary of state, Hillary lobbied for the first-ever U.N. Human Rights Council resolution on LGBT human rights.
80.                       She made LGBT rights a priority of U.S. foreign policy.
81.                       In the words of the Advocate, Hillary has an “awesome LGBT agenda” to protect and expand LGBT rights.
82.                       She’s not afraid to stand up to discriminatory attempts to roll back voting rights in places like Alabama.
83.                       Hillary knows Muslim Americans are helping our communities succeed and are our first, last, and best line of defense against radical jihadism.
84.                       Hillary will defend marriage equality—and appoint Supreme Court justices who believe in equality for all, no matter who you are or who you love.
85.                       She will provide funding to make sure body cameras are available to every police department in America to increase accountability on both sides of the lens.
Hillary knows Muslim Americans are helping our communities succeed and are our first, last, and best line of defence against radical jihadism
86.                       She’ll expand on-campus child care and scholarships to help student parents balance going to school with raising a child.
87.                        Her first major address as a presidential candidate was a call to end the “era of mass incarceration.”
88.                       She’ll fight to end racial profiling in America.
89.                       She’ll expand on-campus child care and scholarships to help student parents balance going to school with raising a child.
90.                       Her first major address as a presidential candidate was a call to end the “era of mass incarceration.”
91. She’ll fight to end racial profiling in America.
92.                        She’ll hold irresponsible gun dealers and manufacturers fully accountable if they endanger Americans—and that includes repealing the gun industry’s unique immunity protection.
93.                        She’ll work to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world.
94.                        She worked to expand the Family Medical Leave Act, allowing families of those wounded in service to their country to take leave in order to care for their loved ones.
95.                        Family members who care for ailing parents and grandparents could use some tax relief.
96.                        She has called out the Republicans’ offensive, inflammatory anti-Muslim rhetoric because she knows it’s against our values as Americans—and our national security.
97.Because when a company does well, the employees who helped produce those profits deserve a share in them—not just CEOs.
98.                       She believes we should use alternatives to incarceration for low-level, nonviolent marijuana users, and she will reschedule marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule II substance.
99.                        She’s not afraid to to call out Republicans for blocking efforts to keep guns from suspected terrorists.
100.                   She helped lead the charge to raise the minimum wage as a senator.
101.                    Building international coalitions advances our values, interests, and makes the world safer. Hillary is the only candidate who will respect our alliances—and has actually done it.
102.                   She worked across the aisle to expand health care access for members of the National Guard and reservists—making sure those who served and their families had access to health care when they returned home.
103.                 We should put American families over the gun lobby—and Hillary is not afraid to stand up to the NRA.
104.                   There are cities across the country that are already leading on climate change—so she’ll launch a Clean Energy Challenge that will form new partnerships with states, cities, and rural communities.
105.                   She’ll “ban the box” so people who have a past conviction can get a fair shot at employment.
106.                   When Hillary was secretary of state, the U.S. extended antiretroviral therapy—which helps HIV/AIDS patients live longer, healthier lives—to 78 countries.
107.                    It should be easier for businesses to train and hire apprentices.
108.                   The nation’s leading advocates for gun violence prevention have said Hillary’s plan is the right strategy.
109.                   Because women’s rights are human rights.
110.                    Because even when people didn’t want her to go to China and stand up for human rights at the 1995 U.N. Conference on Women in Beijing, she did it anyway.
111.                      Because a woman’s place is in the White House.
112.                     Because all families should be have access to high-quality, affordable child care.
113.                     Hillary will make sure people living with disabilities have access to the same opportunities as every American.
114.                     Because an AIDS-free generation is within reach.
115.                     Hillary is the only candidate with a plan to expand opportunity in low-income communities and make housing more affordable.
116.                     Because mental health should never be stigmatized and we should remove barriers to accessing care.
117.                     Because she’s spent 30 years in public service—creating change for all Americans.
118.                    We can create a National Service Reserve so that Americans can enlist to help communities in need.
119.                     Because we need to put an end to campus sexual assault.
120.                   Because people like these folks are on Team Hillary: 
121.                     Because rural communities are the backbone of this country—and Hillary has a plan to make sure they reap the rewards of our economic successes.
122.                    Because she will make environmental justice a central priority.
123.                    Because every kid in every ZIP code deserves quality schools.
124.                    Because she’s not afraid to stand up to bullies.
125.                    Hillary will make it easier to start and grow a small business—and easier for small businesses to thrive.
126.                    Because she will protect Roe v. Wade and women’s health.
127.                    Hillary will invest in STEM and computer science education—because we need to prepare our kids for 21st-century jobs.
128.                   Because we need to do more to support the millions of Americans living with autism and their families.
129.                    Because no child should have to grow up in poverty.
130.                   Donald Trump. Enough said.